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Scenario Planning for a possible 2nd Trump Presidency

#futuregood #futurism #scenarioplanning nonprofit philanthropy May 31, 2024

The thought of a potential second Trump presidency might feel emotionally overwhelming, and it can seem like a million things could go wrong. However, scenario planning reveals that there are only about four likely outcomes. By identifying these probable scenarios, you can quickly determine which future you are facing and adapt your strategy accordingly. This proactive approach allows us to respond swiftly and effectively, harnessing the momentum in times of rapid change. Embracing preparedness rather than fear empowers us to turn challenges into opportunities. (For instance, a potential positive outcome could be the mobilization of a large population of volunteers eager to support social sector organizations. We must be prepared to harness this energy and the influx of resources it brings.)

We have valuable indicators based on Trump's stated plans for a second term in office as well as his actions during his previous term. In 2016, I successfully guided social sector leaders through a similar workshopping process, laying out the scenarios that would likely happen. Virtually everything we workshopped came to pass. That meant that the people in the room with me previously were prepared, scenarios in hand, when Trump entered office. They followed his plays and adjusted quickly.  

By understanding the likely impacts on the social sector and the communities we serve, we can strategically position ourselves to mitigate risks and leverage any positive developments that may arise. Furthermore, this type of scenario planning is essential in times of rapid change. Things are both different and the same in 2024 than they were in 2016 - we have navigated a global pandemic since then. There are global conflicts affecting our communities both inside and outside the US. Police continue to respond to peaceful protests with force. Roe v Wade has been overturned, and there is a conservative super majority on the Supreme Court.

The rate of change will not go back to how it was before - this is the new normal. We must rise to meet the challenge. To learn more about how to do this, join me on Thursday, July 18, at 1pm ET/10am PT when I will lead a free one hour webinar entitled Scenario Planning for a 2nd Trump Presidency.  A recording will be made available after to those who have signed up.  Register here>