The Art and Strategy of Scenario Mapping
Sep 09, 2025By Chrissie Bonner, Visioning Strategist at FutureGood
Chrissie Bonner is a Visioning Strategist at FutureGood. Connect with her on LinkedIn or reach out to her by email at [email protected].
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In February, I wrote a short article on the question, “How can we design the future we want rather than simply reacting to chaos?”
As a designer and facilitator, I know that having the right tools can make all the difference, whether you’re creating an infographic or planning a multi-year initiative. But what about designing for uncertainty? Can we prepare for what we can’t predict?
I am more confident than ever that good scenario planning can support this.
Scenario planning doesn’t try to forecast the future. Instead, it helps us map multiple possible scenarios based on the trends and forces already in motion. Rather than aiming for one correct answer, we explore a range of outcomes, both the likely and the unexpected, so we can prepare for them. The truth is, elements of each one of the scenarios will likely come into play sooner or later…
In February, I discussed the VUCA framework, but another format for this process is the 2x2 matrix. By selecting two critical uncertainties and mapping them as perpendicular axes, we obtain four distinct future worlds.
Each quadrant invites us to imagine:
- What challenges might emerge here?
- What opportunities could we leverage?
- What signals might tell us this future is unfolding?
- How would we prepare now if this were the reality?
And, in my opinion and experience, when we add visuals, planning gets even more powerful. Our brains are wired to respond to stories and pictures. That’s why in my work, I don’t just describe these futures; I draw them out.
Visual scenario maps like this one can help teams see complexity more clearly, understand the gist immediately, and spark new ideas that might not emerge through conversation alone.
Illustrating Progress is a mission-driven creative studio focusing on nonprofit and social change work that I founded in 2014. The scenarios here are specific to Illustrating Progress’ opportunities and challenges in four distinct worlds where the horizontal axis represents Economic Stability to Economic Instability, and the vertical axis represents AI-Centric to Human-Centric Creative Processes. Note: Often the axes are formatted in terms of stability versus instability or some other paradigm where one side is destined to feel like the good side and the other side is the bad side. I decided to mix it up and create a new spectrum that feels more uncertain in terms of a good vs. bad binary.
From there, I imagined four possible futures for Illustrating Progress:
- Human Resilience in Tough Times – Budgets are tight, trust and human skills matter most.
- Healthy Economy and Human-Driven Craft – High trust, high budgets, AI as a supporting tool.
- Scrambling for Efficiency – Lean budgets, automation dominates.
- AI Prosperity – Strong finances, AI is a primary “creative” driver.
What I love is that every scenario includes opportunities, signals, and preparation steps. The goal is not to guess which one will come to fruition, but to enhance the company's adaptability across all of them.
Scenario planning, especially when visualized, helps us meet reality where it is and prepare for a range of possibilities. We may not control the future, but we can sharpen our awareness, spot the signals, and be ready to act when it matters most.
If you’d like to explore how futurism tools like scenario mapping could help your team plan for uncertainty, I’d love to talk.
